Five Rupees has a very interesting discussion between three political science PhD candidates on the Indo-Pak issue in the backdrop of the Indian side recently proposing to renew talks with Pakistan. The talks had been halted rather abruptly after the terror attacks on Mumbai on 26th November, 2008 and India since then had been understandably sulking about it. It's been over a year though since that horrific incident and a lot has happened since, not least of which is the rapid decline in the internal security situation in Pakistan.
The discussion is enlightening in many ways as it touches upon several topics of relevance for people in that region (and outside as well). Topics include nuclear deterrence, Pakistan's strategy of strategic depth against India by its involvement in internal Afghan politics, the Indian reasons for coming to the table for talks, the water dispute between the two countries and of course Kashmir.
With regards to the talks, it seems that one of the main reasons for India initiating the new rounds of talk is its perceived weakness in the Af-Pak region. India has seldom wielded real influence in Afghanistan except for its support to the Northern Alliance during and after the Taliban rule. But what little influence it had just suffered a still larger blow with the powers-that-be in the region, i.e. US, UK, Canada and Pakistan, having recently consciously chosen to sideline Indian concerns on Afghanistan. This despite India having invested billions into redevelopment efforts in Afghanistan since the dismantling of the Taliban regime. The US of course wants to assuage the concerns of the Pakistanis so that they can focus on going after the extremists in their midst and worry less about encirclement by India.
But the Indians seem particularly alarmed that everyone (except India) seems to be very inclined to start talks of some sort with the "good Taliban" in the Af-Pak region to solve the region's problems. The Indians insist that there is no such thing as good Taliban - a view expressed by Indian foreign minister S M Krishna recently. Of course, Krisha was forced to backtrack somewhat on those comments and suggest some flexibility on the issue because its stand has fallen on deaf ears, with the powers-that-be only intent on offering whatever confidence builders are desired by Pakistan for now.
It does seem that the security situation in the western part of the sub-continent has changed little since the Mumbai terror attacks. India's standing has not enhanced much and for the moment at least, despite its recent warming to and alignment with the United States. While the internal terror threat has been tackled with a lot of vigor, the external threat to India primarily in the form of anti-India extremists residing in Pakistan still exist largely untouched by the govt. of Pakistan and are not the focus of US action in the region. This could definitely be perceived as a failure of Indian foreign policy in the region.
There seems to be little option for the Indians than seeking the help of the nascent Pak civilian government in reducing that external threat, even as the Pak govt. once again tries to battle on many fronts. As in the past, the perception remains that it is still the Pak Army and its intelligence agencies who call the actual shots. In that context does it make sense for the Indians to talk to the civilian government in Pakistan?
It does seem as if its just the start of a new cycle of "Talks - catastrophic security event - Confrontation and No Talks" a sentiment expressed by Five Rupees as well. Any bets on the breaking of that cycle this time around?
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