It is possible that the terrorists who staged the Mumbai attacks of November 2008 had anticipated the numerous potential consequences/fallouts of the attacks, were they to be successful. Several of those consequences may have been intended too (otherwise why carry them out - right!?). Some of the many that have been bandied about since then include: a.) destroying the so-called India-Pakistan "peace process", perhaps igniting a war between the two nuclear neighbors as well, b.) putting the brakes on India's rapid economic growth, c.) sowing even further communal disharmony within India, d.) further weakening Pakistan's democratically elected government, e.) trying out terror strategies in India to be applied elsewhere, f.) replacing Al Qaeda as the numero uno Islamic terrorist group operating in the sub-con, etc. ,
The impact however on Indian society is what we need to be most concerned about.
1. Further communal divide is probably inevitable in the short term:
India should be most concerned about the potential for further divisions being created between Muslims and non-Muslims. There is already a fair degree of polarization primarily between Hindus and Muslims. There is a general perception among non-Muslims that, Muslims, as a community have until now reacted only halfheartedly to the cause of tackling religious extremism. While the presence of any truth in that perception is highly debatable , that the perception exists and won't be going away soon is itself is a major sticking point going ahead.
The Mumbai attacks will in the short term exacerbate this communal divide. All of this can only mean further marginalization of a large percentage of Indian Muslims from the mainstream. This is bad news for a community already suffering from a fair degree of alienation within India; both of the self-imposed kind, in their reticence to adopting modernity, as well as, of the discriminatory kind practiced by their biased countrymen.
A polarized society to some extent is also ideal in the eyes of rightwing nationalists and religious extremists including and especially folks like Narendra Modi, and hardline conservative Muslim organizations, in their quest for becoming prominent national players. Rightwing Hindu nationalists, not content with pogroms such as Gujarat 2002, have also been indulging in terrorism of their own kind purportedly in response to Islamic terrorism. Some commentators have called this vigilantism but as it still involves the murder of innocents - it's just plain terrorism according to me. Investigations by the Mumbai ATS (Anti-Terrorist Squad) recently unearthed that some recently unexplained bomb blasts, most notably Malegaon, were plotted by right-wing Hindus, and the participants included, among others, ex-Indian military personnel. These were previously blamed on Muslim organizations and/or the Interservices Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan's notorious intelligence agency.
It also didn't help matters much when the ATS officer (Hemant Karkare) leading this investigation was scorned by rightwing Hindu parties for pursuing Hindu extremists, leading many Muslims to suspect a conspiracy behind his subsequent tragic killing along with those of two other police officers in a shootout early during the Mumbai terrorist attacks. That such absurd conspiracies can actually gain some credibility (expressed even at a governmental level - read A. R. Antulay) is a testimony to how little trust there exists in the impartiality of law and order enforcement in India.
2. Moderate Muslims will be more vocal:
These events and possible consequences have not escaped the notice of Indian Muslims as well. They have been hitherto silent - perhaps reluctant to voice their opinions denoucing extremism of all sorts, particularly the ones linked to Islam because of the reaction of very vocal loudmouth religious Muslim conservatives. Now is the opportunity to make themselves heard more clearly, as they are They're probably getting sicker by the day because of a.) the hijacking of their religion by brainwashed, mostly uneducated crazies around the world but particularly in India, and b.) the profiling and some discriminations they face in many places by virtue of their last names (analogous to the racial profiling and discriminations African Americans sometimes face in largely Caucasian i.e. white neighborhoods, and c.). the constant need for them to make a show of their patriotism and mainstream credentials. Expect more of them to speak out. The rise of the moderates will be crucial in averting direct confrontation between communities.
3. Elites just realized that they're just like the rest of us:
It is clear that elite Mumbaiites had believed themselves to be generally much safer when compared to the rest of the city/country, being dissociated from the bomb blasts ordinary Mumbaikars and Indian citizens as a whole had been subjected to all year. They probably thought they lived in a different country altogether. The Mumbai attacks may have changed that to some degree. The same elites who have remained largely silent and detached, are now at the forefront of social activism, loudly demanding better security and governance. While this new found awareness does reek of hypocrisy of sorts, it is critical to bringing about the necessary improvements in governance. That is because this group is highly influential, being either famous or rich or both. (The celebrity obsessed 24/7 news media outliets in India clearly lap up and continuously replay anything these guys say.) This may easily be one of the more positive fallouts of the Mumbai attacks. However, it remains to be seen if their new found political activism is shortlived or not.
4. Urban India - Middle class meltdown?:
The urban middle class however will continue to do what they have been doing all this while - trying to live quiet, decent lives in spite of being surrounded by increasing despair about the inability to control anything in their lives in any substantial fashion. As if they weren't suffering enough already because of poor governance, overcrowding of their cities, dismal infrastructure and facilities, rampant corruption at all levels, communalism, near-constant fear of war, current economic depression, etc. The fear now that they aren't even safe in their own homes will just make general stress levels go through the roof. Folks will start breaking down far more often. A new generation of children will grow up having watched those 3 days of continuous TV coverage of a horrific terrorist attack on their country/city. The impact this could have on their impressionable minds is impossible to predict.
How important national security is to the general populace will be more quantifiably determined from the results of the upcoming national elections due anytime soon. So far terrorist attacks have largely affected the urban populace. It's difficult to image the rural population being too concerned with problems faced by big cities, especially when these big city residents can hardly be bothered to vote, much less spare a thought for the problems faced by the rural folks, and when rural India is faced with several problems of its own and where development has been percolating extremely slowly.
5. Possible watershed event?
Terrorist attacks in Indian cities have become common place. But as is frequently the case with humanity in general, and Indian society in particular, things have to get a whole lot worse to actually get better. The Mumbai attacks may have just made things a whole lot worse - surpassing the high tolerance, resignation and fatalism levels of Indian society. Indian society reacted this time by demanding government accountability and wholesale changes with immediate effect. They got it too. In the long term, it is highly likely that among the several hundred million deeply affected by these attacks, there will be some who will soon be in a position to effect large-scale improvements. There will also be still others who will be goaded out of their apathy and will end up participating in the political process to improve their security.
Fear can end up being a pretty good motivator after all.
But ultimately, no one really knows. We can only wait and see. And hope that after all this, things may just get better.
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